By Evan Debo
Last season, Bud Selig and Major League Baseball instituted a second wild card in each league to add more excitement to the postseason and to give purpose to some middle-of-the-pack teams in September playing .500 baseball.
Enter year two. Baltimore, Texas, Tampa Bay, New York, Cleveland, and Kansas City are all within two and a half games of both wild card slots in the American League as of Sept. 17.
The same cannot be said for the National League, however, as it is really only a three-horse race between the St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Cincinnati Reds – all of which would rather win the division.
Wild card teams are slotted to play one another in a ‘winner takes all’ play-in game the first week of the season, so there is an increased importance on winning your division because it guarantees your team at least three games in a best-of-five series.
The Pirates, Cards, and Reds are all 80-win teams who have beaten up on each other all season, and their positioning atop the NL Central changes by the day.
All three teams are bound to make the postseason with just under 17 games left in the regular season, but which one of them will take home the National League Central Division title on Sept. 29? Cases can be made for all three.
The Pirates, who just clinched their first winning season since 1992, have certainly been the frontrunners up to this point. Center-fielder Andrew McCutchen, an MVP candidate, is third in the league with a .326 batting average and starter Francisco Liriano is a 16-game winner with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP.
But those aren’t the guys you should be worried about.
Pittsburgh GM has been all in one this season for a while now, and his recent acquisitions of OF Marlon Byrd and 2006 American league MVP Justin Morneau have bolstered what is already one of the best 25-man rosters in baseball.
As of now, St. Louis and Pittsburgh are tied atop the Central. St. Louis had taken the reins at the top of the Central Division after sweeping the Pirates in a three-game series Sept. 5-8, but Pittsburgh responded by sweeping the Texas Rangers in Arlington.
Since 2002, the Cardinals have been to the postseason seven times, the National League Championship series six times, the World Series three times, and have won it all twice. If there is one thing you can expect once the calendar flips over to October, it is that St. Louis will be in the postseason.
While McCutchen may be Pittsburgh’s MVP candidate, St. Louis catcher Yadier Molina may be the actual frontrunner for the prestigious award.
Molina is well regarded as the top catcher in the game behind the plate, but his offensive abilities are what he prides himself on – .317 BA, 12 home runs, and 66 RBI. Outside of the Braves’ Brian McCann, there is not another catcher in the league who puts up the numbers Molina does from year to year.
Aside from Molina, the Cards also have one of the best rotations in baseball with three 13-game winners in Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, and Shelby Miller.
Maybe the afterthought of this entire NL Central race is the Cincinnati Reds who have been in third place nearly the whole season – within striking distance, but never close enough to assume the top spot, but of late they have the momentum.
In their last three series’ they swept the NL West-leading L.A. Dodgers, took three out of four against St. Louis at home, but then only took one out of three against the underperforming Chicago Cubs.
Whereas the Cards and Pirates have clear-cut MVP-caliber players on their roster, Cincinnati really has a group of individuals who won’t be in MVP consideration, but have still performed exceptionally well at the plate and on the mound. Brandon Phillips is the first Reds se ond baseman since Hall of Famer Joe Morgan in 1976 to drive in 100 RBI.
First baseman Joey Votto ranks fourth in the National League in OPS and WAR and leads the Majors in bases on balls with 117 (19 ahead of the next closest player – coincidentally teammate Shin Soo-Choo). Even Right-Fielder Jay Bruce has chipped in 32 homeruns and driven in 93 runs.
What the Reds lack in individual accolades, they make up for in consistency up and down their lineup.
Even though no one in the Central has the best record in the National League, the Braves and Dodgers are worse teams record-wise due to the fact that they don’t have to beat up on their own divisions as much as these teams do.
That is why the Braves (10 games up) and Dodgers (9.5 games up) have the respective leads that they do.
The Pirates, Reds, and Cardinals are coincidentally three, four, and five in the NL in team ERA trailing only the NL East-leading Braves and the NL West-leading Dodgers. For as consistent as they have been at the plate, they are winning ballgames with their pitching.
In recent memory I cannot recall a race as close as this one this late in the season, and what we are seeing from all three teams is nothing short of fantastic baseball. So when it is all said and done, who gets the job done at the end of the day?
Will it be the Cardinals who always seem to follow through in the postseason? The Pirates who seemed destined to make 2013 their year after 20 consecutive losing seasons? Or perhaps it will be Cincinnati coming from behind to take their third Central title in four seasons.
My take?I think the Reds are the dark horse. Of their final five series’ this year, two are against sub-.500 teams including the abysmal Houston Astros and an underperforming New York Mets squad. On top of that, the Reds now have their ace back in starter Johnny Cueto who has been on the 60-day disabled list .
Cueto pitched 5 innings of 5-hit, shutout ball against the Astros in his first start since June 29 on Monday. And in case you were wondering, the other two series’ the Reds have left are home and home contests with teh Pittsburgh Pirates.
With a total of six games left to beplayed between the two teams, don’t be surprised if the National League Central battle comes down to that Reds-Pirates series on the final day of the regular season.
edebo@capital.edu
