December 1, 2020

An analysis of the 2020 election so far

The 2020 presidential election is still not over as this piece is being written. However, in the short hours it will take for this piece to be published it is possible that anything mentioned in this article could change. 

This has been a race that may ultimately be decided by the blue wall that Trump cracked in 2016. That blue wall consists of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. As of 8:30p.m. November 4th, two of those three states have been called for former Vice President Joe Biden. According to the Associated Press, Joe Biden holds a 264-214 lead over President Donald Trump. 

Joe Biden got to this point in a much tighter race than expected. Democrats had hopes that states like Texas, Florida and Ohio would flip into Biden’s favor. All of those states ended up in the president’s favor. Early Wednesday morning, Joe Biden said he felt confident that he would win the election but that every vote needed to be counted first. A couple hours later, President Trump declared victory. Many had predicted Trump would declare a premature victory and allege the election was rigged and fraudulent. That is exactly what the president did despite there being no evidence of significant fraud. 

While not many states remain left in play, there are a few that are still important to the election. Here is a breakdown of those states. 

Wisconsin

The state that is known for the Greenbay Packers and cheese has been called for Vice President Joe Biden. Currently 99.5% of the vote is counted and Joe Biden holds a lead that hovers right around 20,000 votes. This is just about the same margin that President Trump was able to win with back in 2016. President Trump has already requested a recount which is within his rights as the vote is within one percentage point. Experts have predicted that the recount will not cause any significant difference. Wisconsin is no stranger to recounts and its original counts are typically pretty accurate. 

Michigan 

Prior to Michigan being called for Biden, Trump announced he would go to the courts and argue that the counting be stopped due to irregularities. The case is unlikely to change the outcome of Michigan’s electoral votes.

Pennsylvania

The Keystone State has yet to be called. As of Wednesday night, President Trump leads Joe Biden by about 3%. However that is down significantly from Tuesday night when Trump’s lead at one point was in double digit percentage points. As in all other states, mail-in ballots favor Biden significantly; the estimate is at a ratio of 3:1. Whether or not Biden can make up the 200,000 vote deficit remains to be seen. Pennsylvania will likely be one of the last states to be called due to their late start in counting mail-in votes. Trump also plans to bring a court case to Pennsylvania. 

Georgia 

Early Tuesday night Georgia looked to be going steadily for President Trump. However, once mail-in ballots and votes from the Atlanta area came in, that lead shrank for Trump. Georgia is still in play. While it may seem like a tall mountain to climb, Biden is only down 1% and less than 100,000 votes in the Peach State. 

North Carolina 

North Carolina is similar to Georgia right now. The difference is that Biden has less areas to make up votes. While Trump only leads by 1%, it is unlikely Biden will make up enough ground to win the state. However, the state has yet to be called.

Arizona 

While Fox News called Arizona relatively early on election night, many have yet to follow suit. Some have jumped on board the day after the election but others are hesitant to definitively give Arizona to Joe Biden. It seems extremely unlikely that Trump will pull out a win in Arizona, but in the opinion of some it is not impossible. 

Nevada

If you’re a Republican right now, all of your hopes rely on Nevada. If you’re a Democrat you may be wondering why the Silver State is putting you through this agony. Coming into the election, Joe Biden was heavily favored to win Nevada and that is still the case. The race looks extremely tight right now with Biden leading by less than a percentage point. However, mail-in ballots are expected to be counted and released. As the rest of the country has shown, mail-in ballots skew heavily towards Biden. Nevada plans to release a large batch of numbers on Thursday at 9am PST (12pm EST). The state has not voted for a Republican president since 2004. If the state goes blue, that will push Joe Biden over the 270 electoral threshold and right on into the White House. 

Ohio

Worth mentioning is our own Buckeye State. Ohio was considered a tossup but went to President Trump by a similar margin as 2016. Few Democrats seem to have what it takes to win in the once purple state. Democrats must establish a new plan to reach out beyond the cities, into the suburbs and rural areas if they ever want anyone other than Sherrod Brown to win state office again as a Democrat.

  • J.J. is a Junior Political Science major and a Political Correspondent for The Chimes. J.J. served in the Capital University Student Government and has helped on different political campaigns. You can email him at jprice3@capital.edu.

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